argus. Table 6 Effects of average weather variables on colonization frequencies, measured over flight periods during 1991–2008; for best models, based on AIC Species C. pamphilus M. jurtina P. argus Best model MCC950 chemical structure AIC Cloudiness t − 1 + wind speed t 68.50 60.05 95.52 Radiation t 81.35 54.19 89.91 Temperature t + wind speed t − 1
74.42 56.09 83.25 Full model 66.25 62.11 92.66 Null model 79.47 57.04 93.99 Estimates best models Intercept 29.408 −3.783 −35.527 Temperature t – – 0.115 Radiation t – 0.003 – Cloudiness t − 1 −2.950 – – Wind speed t −0.377 – – Wind speed t − 1 – – 0.642 Bold value represents best model per species “–” not included in best model aColonization frequencies correlated to population indices and weather conditions experienced S3I-201 in vitro during the flight period of the same year (t) or the previous year (t − 1) bWeather conditions during flight periods first and second generation of C. pamphilus taken together Discussion We have shown that duration of flying bouts and net displacement of butterflies generally increased with temperature; duration of flying bouts and proportion of time spent flying decreased with cloudiness. When butterflies
fly longer bouts, start flying more readily, spend more time flying, and fly over longer distances, we expect dispersal propensity to increase. Furthermore, the higher the flight activity, the higher the probability to leave a patch. We have shown that colonization frequencies increased with temperature and radiation and decreased with cloudiness. We conclude that these results suggest that patches of habitat in a fragmented landscape are more readily colonized in periods with weather conditions favourable for dispersal. Therefore, we argue that climate change not only aggravates the impacts of habitat
fragmentation on populations (Opdam and Wascher 2004; Travis 2003; Warren et al. 2001), but also may diminish these impacts by enhancing dispersal and colonization. This is indeed shown in the successful northwards range expansion of mobile generalist species (Warren et al. aminophylline 2001). Further evidence supporting this view was found by Møller et al. (2006), who found increased dispersal tendencies in a coastal seabird, the Arctic tern, in relation with long-term climate change. Moreover, increased dispersal tendencies in bush crickets in response to improving environmental conditions at their range margins have been TSA HDAC cost reported by Thomas et al. (2001) and Simmons and Thomas (2004). Our study shows that increased dispersal under climate change may also apply to moderately mobile species. The tendency to start flying was enhanced by increasing radiation (C. pamphilus, M. athalia), as expected. Males of C. pamphilus exhibited longer flights and flew off more readily than females. This was also found by Wickman (1985), and can be related to mate-locating and territorial behaviour (cf.
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