Both the subsections conclude with a discussion on whether the uncertainty is reducible and controllable through quantification. The updated Management plan presents nine oil spill scenarios with variations concerning spill size, petroleum composites, type of events, release sites and environmental impacts [30]. The worst-case Quizartinib supplier scenario is defined to be 4500 t of oil being released daily for 50
days and for seven different release sites [30]. The expected frequency of oil spills larger than 100,000 t is estimated for different production stages and different types of installations, varying between once every 15,576 and 62,500 years for each well [30]. Simulations of resulting oil slick distributions are not yet settled. When establishing worst-case scenarios, the size of realistic blowouts and oil spills, their probabilities and the petroleum composite are estimated. The required industry standard expects blowout risk Selleckchem CYC202 studies
to reflect reservoir conditions, operational procedures, equipment to be used and weather conditions at the site of concern [31] and [25]. The estimates of relative frequencies are based on the data since 1988 from a database of global petroleum activity and incidents [30] and [32]. The blowouts in the Gulf of Mexico have not been considered relevant since the ratio of blowouts to number of wells has been higher than in the North Sea with statistical significance [28] and [30]. Due to strict procedure and technical requirements in the offshore sector in Norway, only one blowout was considered sufficiently relevant for Nordland VI (see Fig. 1): the blowout in UK waters in 1989 [33]. The relative frequencies used for risk analyses for drilling in Nordland VI are established on this single blowout relative to the number of drilled wells Sitaxentan with no blowouts in the North Sea since 1988 [33]. This baseline estimate is 5.5 blowouts every 10,000 years [33]. Since there has
been a technical and procedural development since then, resulting in a reduction of near misses that could have led to blowouts if the security barriers had failed, the baseline estimate is reduced to 1.5 every 10,000 years [33] and [28]. The procedure for deciding the baseline estimates for the other subareas of the Lofoten area have been challenging to find. Reports refer to the same database and software as used for Nordland VI, but do not include information on the number of blowouts and non-blowouts. It is reasonable to assume that judgments on what constitutes comparable conditions have been similar. Global experience suggests that the probability of a blowout varies with production stage, choice of technology and geological conditions, and the relative occurrences between such conditions are estimated.
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